Pendekatan Dinamika Sistem dalam Manajemen Rantai Pasokan pada Kebijakan Manajemen Gas Alam: Studi Kasus Indonesia
Pendekatan Dinamika Sistem dalam Manajemen Rantai Pasokan pada Kebijakan Manajemen Gas Alam: Studi Kasus Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47701/094jdp93Keywords:
Causal Loop Diagram, Supply Chain, Natural Gas, Energy PolicyAbstract
This study employs a system dynamics approach using Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) to explore the complex interactions between infrastructure development, regulatory policies, and market behavior in Indonesia's Natural Gas Management supply chain system. The CLDs identify twelve key feedback loops across six interconnected subsystems: Distribution & Logistics, Demand & Consumption, Cost & Investment, Regulation & Policy, Technology & Innovation, and Industry & Market Adoption. These loops reflect the reinforcing and balancing dynamics that influence supply chain performance indicators such as cost efficiency, responsiveness, scalability, and sustainability. Key findings indicate that infrastructure limitations, regulatory delays, and investment uncertainty are key constraints to optimal distribution. Based on the CLD analysis, five policy recommendations are proposed to improve supply chain performance: aligning infrastructure investment with regional demand, performance-based subsidy allocation, digital innovation in logistics, adoption-based policy design, and regulatory simplification. The study provides a structured framework for energy policymakers and stakeholders to improve the effectiveness and resilience of Indonesia's natural gas distribution system during its clean energy transition.
References
[1] A. Sugiyono dan Adiarso , "Pengembangan Infrastruktur Gas Alam untuk Meningkatkan Ketahanan Energi Nasional di Indonesia," dalam Prosiding Konferensi Internasional Teknik Kimia dan Material (ICCME 2020) , IOP Conf. Ser.: Mater. Sci. Eng. , vol. 1053, hal. 012099, 2021, doi : 10.1088/1757-899X/1053/1/012099.
[2] Lembaga Reformasi Layanan Esensial (IESR), Prospek Transisi Energi Indonesia 2024. Jakarta: IESR, 2024. [Online]. Tersedia: https://iesr.or.id/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Indonesia-Energy-Transition-Outlook-2024-1.pdf
[3] Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral Republik Indonesia, Laporan Kinerja Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral , 2021. [Online]. Tersedia: https://www.esdm.go.id/assets/media/content/content-laporan-kinerja-kementerian-esdm-2021.pdf
[4] J. Kusuma, H. Widodo, dan R. Andriyani, “Analisis pasar pasokan dan permintaan gas alam di Provinsi Jawa Timur untuk mewujudkan skenario berkelanjutan menggunakan simulasi dinamika sistem,” IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci. , vol. 557, no. 1, hal. 012041, 2020, doi : 10.1088/1755-1315/557/1/012041.
[5] PGN Indonesia, Laporan Tahunan PGN Indonesia . Laporan Internal, 2024. [Online]. Tersedia: https://ir.pgn.co.id/AssetFiles/Financial/AnnualReport/laporan_tahunan_2024.pdf
[6] J. Zarei dan MR Amin-Naseri, "Model optimasi terintegrasi untuk rantai pasokan gas alam," Energy , vol. 185, hlm. 1114–1130, Okt. 2019, doi : 10.1016/j.energy.2019.07.117.
[7] Statista, “Konsumsi gas alam global 1998–2022.” [Online]. Tersedia di: https://www.statista.com
[8] McKinsey & Company, Global Gas Outlook to 2050 , McKinsey Energy Insight Report, 2021. [Online]. Tersedia: https://www.mckinsey.com
[9] JD Sterman, Dinamika Bisnis: Pemikiran Sistem dan Pemodelan untuk Dunia yang Kompleks . Boston: Irwin/McGraw-Hill, 2000.
[10] AA Purwosaputra , KB Artana, dan AAB Dinariyana , "Pemodelan dinamika sistem untuk pasokan dan permintaan gas alam berkelanjutan di Indonesia untuk memenuhi permintaan tambahan dari 52 pembangkit listrik yang dikonversi," IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science , vol. 972, hal. 012007, Nov. 2021, doi : 10.1088/1755-1315/972/1/012007.
[11] J. Kusuma, KB Artana, dan AAB Dinariyana , "Analisis pasar pasokan dan permintaan gas alam di Provinsi Jawa Timur untuk mewujudkan skenario berkelanjutan menggunakan simulasi dinamika sistem," IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science , vol. 557, hal. 012041, Juli 2020, doi : 10.1088/1755-1315/557/1/012041.
[12 ] Z. Hong, H. Sha, dan Q. Sun, "Model dinamika sistem untuk mekanisme keseimbangan pasokan dan permintaan gas alam yang aman," Energy Science & Engineering , vol. 11, no. 10, Agustus 2023, doi : 10.1002/ese3.1553.
[13] Y. Ding, M. Zhang, S. Chen, dan R. Nie, "Menilai ketahanan impor gas alam Tiongkok di bawah gangguan jaringan," Energy , vol. 211, 118459, Nov. 2020, doi : 10.1016/j.energy.2020.118459.
[14] S. Chen, Y. Ding, Y. Song, M. Zhang, dan R. Nie, "Studi tentang ketahanan sistem energi Tiongkok dalam skenario kekurangan impor minyak jangka panjang," Energy , vol. 270, hlm. 126831, Mei 2023, doi : 10.1016/j.energy.2023.126831.
[15] Y. Xiong, Y. Wang, Y. Zhang, J. Chen, dan M. Wu, "Rencana produksi, investasi, dan keuangan untuk perusahaan energi terintegrasi 'gas alam+': Penilaian menggunakan dinamika sistem dan model optimasi multi-objektif," Energy Reports , vol. 13, hlm. 1859–1874, Juni 2025, doi : 10.1016/j.egyr.2025.01.042.
[16] Y. Ding, S. Chen, Y. Zheng, S. Chai, dan R. Nie, "Penilaian ketahanan sistem gas alam Tiongkok dalam kondisi kekurangan pasokan: Pendekatan dinamika sistem," Energy , vol. 247, hlm. 123518, Mei 2022, doi : 10.1016/j.energy.2022.123518.
[17] M. Song, Z. Wang, L. Chi, R. Wang, dan M. Zhu, "Studi tentang ketahanan sistem gas alam jangka pendek di bawah guncangan kekurangan impor," Energy , vol. 328, hlm. 136643, Agustus 2025, doi : 10.1016/j.energy.2025.136643.
[18] H. Gao, P. Zhao, dan Z. Li, "Wilayah keamanan dinamis sistem gas alam dalam sistem listrik-gas terintegrasi," Energi , vol. 289, hlm. 129822, Feb. 2024, doi : 10.1016/j.energy.2023.129822.
[19] M. Feofilovs, F. Romagnoli, dan A. Gravelsins , "Model dinamika sistem untuk infrastruktur gas alam dengan fasilitas penyimpanan di Latvia," Energy Procedia, vol. 147, hlm. 549–557, Agustus 2018, doi : 10.1016/j.egypro.2018.07.070.
[20] BM Sopha, AMS Asih, PD Nursitasari , “Perencanaan Lokasi Pusat Distribusi Perkotaan dalam Ketidakpastian: Studi Kasus Provinsi Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta, Indonesia,” J. Ind. Eng. Manag. , vol. 11, no. 3, hlm. 542-568, 2018, https://doi.org/10.3926/jiem.3698.
[21] D. Kusdiana , “ Dirjen EBTKE: Tren Perusahaan Berbasis Energi Fosil Bergeser ke EBT,” Direktorat Jenderal EBTKE , 29 Maret 2023. [Online] Tersedia: https://www.esdm.go.id/id/media-center/arsip-berita/dirjen-ebtke-tren-perusahaan-berbasis-energi-fosil-bergeser-ke-ebt
[22] BM Sopha, A. Hestiani , “Studi kasus UKM Indonesia: Bukti empiris praktik SCM dan dampaknya terhadap kinerja perusahaan,” Int. J. Serv. Technol. Manag. , vol. 24, no.5-6, hlm. 394-413, 2018, doi : 10.1504/IJSTM.2018.094432.
